Ukraine cannot avoid a confrontation with the Trump administration, no matter how much we might want to, if it refuses to surrender its own interests. So the only question is when this confrontation will occur, and what level of Ukraine’s dependence on the U.S. will remain at that moment.

It appears that Donald Trump’s vulnerability has increased following the Iran operation, which is prompting Kyiv and Europe to act more openly—especially amid the accelerating destructive behaiviour by the Americans themselves (such as sanctions rollbacks). The confrontation has already begun.

But first, what do I mean by “confrontation”? It means a more open and honest communication about how the White House actually behaves in non-public tracks and actions.

In other words, abandoning the “kiss his ass” tactic.

American diplomacy is known for dividing pressure: attempting to project an image of “innocence,” while at the same time applying behind-the-scenes pressure and manipulation through media leaks.

During the period of the “kiss-the-ass” tactic—which, although it brought certain benefits—the Americans have already managed to: publicly equate the victim of aggression with the aggressor, gradually create precedents for easing sanctions, and shift responsibility onto Ukraine rather than the Kremlin.

So this cannot go any further.

It is necessary to gradually bring the non-public into the public sphere, in order to create corresponding pressure on the Trump administration. Increased pressure, likely in the run-up to the midterms. Remember how Trump became irritated and accused Kyiv of leaking an unacceptable “American Kremlin plan”? He was irritated because it works. Again, it’s only a matter of timing.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy brings things into the light. Kaja Kallas reproaches. Alexander Stubb verifies. Marco Rubio gets irritated.

The processes described above explain current events: Zelenskyy’s speech in which he stated that Americans will provide guarantees only if Ukraine withdraws from Donbas. In other words, fulfilling a purely Kremlin demand—especially since even the idea of creating an “economic zone” has ultimately been buried by the Americans.

Rubio, in response, publicly calls Zelenskyy a “liar.” But there is no lie here, since the Americans themselves have repeatedly communicated this and have used media leaks to pressure Ukraine, portraying it as “unwilling to make peace.”

Rubio’s irritated reaction is a continuation of his conflict with Kaja Kallas on the sidelines of the G7. Kallas reproached Rubio, reminding him that a year ago he had said that if Moscow did not agree to end the war, the U.S. would increase pressure:

“A year has passed, and the Kremlin has not changed its position. When will your patience run out?” — Kallas asked.

This led to a clash between the EU representative and Rubio, who began threatening that the U.S. could withdraw from the process altogether. Other participants had to intervene (as confirmed by diplomats from several countries at the G7) to stop the conflict.

When journalists asked about the dispute, Rubio responded:

“Such meetings usually involve expressions of gratitude to America for our role and for mediating the war between Russia and Ukraine. No one is shouting or saying anything negative there.”

And that was a lie :). Incidentally, information about the conflict was leaked by European diplomats.

It is worth understanding that Rubio is one of the more constructive figures in the administration, but he will act according to his own ambitions and the internal political climate. And if that climate forces even him to behave like an “idiot,” then it means we are close to a moment of choice.

Rubio’s irritation was likely also intensified by a statement from Finland’s Foreign Ministry that it will check whether all European orders from the U.S. defense industry under PURL are being delivered to Ukraine in accordance with contracts. The Finnish involvement is not accidental, since Alexander Stubb is known as Trump’s “golf friend,” making it awkward for the White House to attack Finland too aggressively in the media.

Finally, Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to Rubio’s accusations, saying it was not a lie and that he had shown “only the smaller part of the iceberg.” This is a hint that more behind-the-scenes U.S. maneuvering could be made public. Recall that earlier it was the Ukrainian side that exposed the so-called “Dmitriev package” with the Americans.

Trump and his team are currently most vulnerable due to Iran, the upcoming midterms, and the failed negotiations with the Kremlin—which only opens the door to “slap the old man on the ass” instead of kissing it.