Thank you for sharing the detailed note. It is worth listening to Dario Amodei’s podcast with Dwarkesh Patel. He is paranoid about losing money and going bankrupt because one or two quarter delays. Hence his reticence on committing to capex and perhaps the moves by Claude to limit token usage. He also makes the point that at some point, the share of training tokens will decline dramatically, and the inference token will rise. The margin on the inference token is huge - and the swing in marginal profitability is likely to be dramatic….It is like FCF when capex stops and CWIP becomes cashflow with asset intensive companies.
May 11
at
12:54 AM
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