Saudi Aramco posted Q1 adjusted net income of $33.6 billion Monday, up 26% YoY and reversing 12 consecutive quarters of profit decline (CNBC, Middle East Observer).

On the same earnings call, CEO Amin Nasser warned the oil market won't normalize until 2027 if Hormuz disruption persists past mid-June.

The world has lost approximately 1 billion barrels of oil supply since the war began. 880 million barrels net after East-West pipeline rerouting. 100 million barrels being lost per week currently.

Only 2 to 5 ships pass Hormuz daily vs 70 pre-war. Over 600 ships, mostly oil and product tankers, are stuck inside the Gulf. Another 240 waiting outside.

The fleet is "mixed up" with tankers in the wrong places (Nasser via CNBC).

Even if Hormuz opens today, normalization takes months. If opening is delayed by a few more weeks, normalization runs into 2027.

Aramco's East-West pipeline is at maximum capacity. 7 million barrels per day. No additional rerouting room.

Trump said Monday the ceasefire is on "massive life support" (Washington Post, CNN).

Brent traded at $104 Monday (Insurance Journal).

Same disruption, opposite consequences. Aramco profits 26% YoY. Tanker operators profit because rates rose. Consumers pay because supply tightened.

The Aramco CEO has now put a public timeline on tanker market disruption that extends into 2027.

This validates the structural product tanker bid. Scorpio Tankers Q1 net income tripled to $216 million on a smaller fleet. The market is pricing what Nasser just said publicly.