Great analysis. Thank you for sharing!

Some notes on objections:

on 2) In uneven match-ups, it's often the stronger team, that pushes for a win and wants to avoid extra-time. So controlling aginst draws doesn't proove, the lift up comes from all-or-nothing-tactics. On contrary: What would explain the statistical overweight, if not a significant shift in play dynamics?

on 3) The control against group stage matches isn't valid as a fair share of them has more urgency than knock-out stage games: 1 There is only three games, they become "knoc-outish" quite fast and often. 2 There is no extra-time, which emphasizes the urgency to resolve the game in stoppage time.