Separating the financing risk from the supply risk is the useful move here, and the credit-spread detail is the part most write-ups leave out. The vendor-financing half has a settled precedent. Lucent's own filings put customer credit commitments at about 5.7 billion dollars as of 31 December 2000, and the company took 2.2 billion dollars of bad-debt provisions in 2001 as those customers failed. If the shape repeats, the repricing lands in the guarantor's balance sheet before it lands in the chip price. Which line would you watch to see it arrive first?

— Nazem