War: I would like to remind Noah Smith that there were an awful lot of attrition battles in World War II—Moscow Nov 1941, Soviet counteroffensive Nov 1941-Feb 1942, Stalingrad Oct-Nov 1942, Moscow Nov 1942-Feb 1943, Normandy June-July 1944, WestWall Oct-Dec 1944, and so forth. In my view, something has to go badly wrong—usually, I think, air supremacy for the other side—for an attrition defense to become difficult for an industrial army. And that has been the rule since 1861. Remember, Sherman’s 1864 March through Georgia was only possible because John Bell Hood had taken the local Confederate field army and marched it off into Alabama and then Tennessee, thinking that Sherman would have no choice to follow:

Noah Smith: Some thoughts on where the war in Ukraine is headed <noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-wher…: ‘In summer and fall of 2023, Ukraine tried to take back… territory, using tanks, mine-clearing vehicles, and other weapons provided by Western countries. This effort nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-u…. The reason… is… modern-day weapons… are able to destroy armored vehicles very easily…. Rapid, tank-led blitzkriegs that defined World War 2 are mostly a thing of the past, at least without overwhelming airpower. Land war has sort of gone back to what it was in WW1—a slow grinding fight for small bits of territory where firepower and resources matter more than brilliant maneuvers…. If the war ended tomorrow, it would be a… successful independence struggle and nation-defining episode for Ukraine…. A lot of Ukrainians would be mad that 18% of their country was still occupied by the Russians, of course, and would resolve to get it back at a later date…. The real danger is if the West cuts off Ukraine aid, and Putin eventually manages to conquer all of Ukraine…. The task of supporting Ukraine for the long term now falls to Europe…