Notes

Economics: The very sharp Karl Smith sees low average hours as a potential sign of weakness—any slackening of demand will see people get fired, which is likely to start a vicious circle as the fired and those who fear that they might be fired cut back on their consumption:

Karl Smith: Fed Rate Cuts Must Come Sooner Rather Than Later <bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-…>: ‘The labor market is rapidly weakening in ways that aren’t well appreciated, raising the risk of a recession if the central bank waits too long to ease monetary policy…. [Thus] Powell should be more worried about tipping the economy into a recession by not lowering rates than he might be with squeezing out the so-called “last mile” of inflation by keeping borrowing costs higher for longer than needed…

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