Economics:I think that the issues here are not ideally well-posed.
The question is always one of opportunities vs. arbitrage. How many opportunities—financial asset prices that are in disequilibrium and should move today away from where they were yesterday—are generated by fundamental news? How many opportunities are generated by noise trading? And how much real time and energy is devoted to good old-fashioned secureity analysis? And how much financial muscle backs up that research into fundamentals?
And bear in mind that things like Cathie Wood and ARK are absolutely mighty engines of noise trading on a gigantic scale, as is Elon Musk’s tweeting out “GAMESTONK!” Plus smart money that is engaged in any form of technical arbitrage is doing security analysis only at second-order—is spreading out noise-based mispricing rather than eliminating it. Plus dumb-beta passive investing is a mighty amplifier for noise.
Thus the more passive investment and the more technical arbitrage and the more social media-driven enthusiasts, the greater the opportunity for active-strategy security analysis. If you can do it yourself. Or if you can find someone to hire who regards you as a client rather than as a rather-naïve counterparty:
Financial Times Editorial Board: Can stock pickers fight the rise of passive investors?: ‘Active fund managers must prove their strategies are worth the cost…. With the expansion of mutual index and ETF products — covering an array of assets and geographies — shifting cash into diversified trackers is simple. Investment apps allow it to be done with the flick of a finger. For households seeking to earn more from their savings, the growth of these low-cost investment vehicles is an unalloyed good…. Seeking out star or dud stocks is a costlier, more research-intensive exercise, and necessitates a higher fee-based business model…. Some economists worry that… beyond a certain threshold…a lack of active traders engaged in weeding out over- or underpriced companies could lead to a greater misallocation of investors’ cash.… For now this is just a theoretical concern…. Hedge funds… currently outnumber Burger King outlets…<ft.com/content/32a57a60-cf6a-42a0-9d94-…>
