Arend Bayer 

Substack Has A Nazi Opportunity

Why use less maths when you can just use more? I have a crack at deriving infection fatality rates, using Bayesian Structural Time Series. paulmainwood.substack.c…

Lord help me, I couldn't resist writing about the COVID Inquiry

Dom and subs

I’ve not been writing on Notes very much lately, because it’s felt like there wasn’t enough momentum behind it to be worth it.

But I was rate limited on Twitter yesterday, and I’m rate limited on Twitter today, which feels like a pretty good spur to make a better fist of it over here instead.

So waves to anyone who is around.

Shouting "Free bird" in a crowded theatre
Replying to

Democrats in Massachusetts certainly need a new vision to sell that sort of change. We (Priorities For Progress) polled Ayanna Pressley in a Democratic gubernatorial primary in a hypothetical 2022 matchup where Baker runs as a Democrat - he gets 62% of the vote, the Democrats get a total of 25% (AG Maura Healey gets 13%, Pressley 7%, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh 4%). SurveyUSA, A-rated pollster from 538, sample of 558 likely 2018 Dem primary voters fielded 8/12-8/16.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/…

Replying to

"voters don't really think Democrats will make their life better" is such a killer. And not wrong? But that's a huge problem. People want to say that skeptical voters in places like Iowa should take a chance on Democrats, but even in places like Massachusetts the voters don't really trust Democrats to run things if they can get a decent-seeming Republican instead.

Replying to

Yeah and, to your point about on making blue states test cases, "Democrats make life better" would be easier nationally if we had things to point to in Dem states. I'm supposed to tell someone in Harris County how they should be Democrats when our housing is unaffordable, transportation atrocious, there's intense racial segregation, and most kids in Boston can't read on grade level at a cost of $21,000 per student.

We export politicians, activists, and operatives at an astounding rate - maybe w…