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Hey Ken, The first part definitely makes sense, and completely agree about the irony! On the second part about employment, whether moving out of China would result in onshoring vs just moving to other countries would seem to depend on US policy, i.e. the trade deficit as a whole hasn't shrunk essentially at all since the China tariffs went up, even though our deficit vis a vis China has shrunk significantly, so companies just went elsewhere (and/or goods were redirected through other countries) and we really didn't bring any jobs home. Again, this analysis assumes that most other countries explicitly make exporting to the US market part of their industrial policy (albeit not as aggressively or destructively as the CCP has), which does in fact seem to be the case. If the US were really to go after the source of the difficulties--the dollar as the reserve currency which puts horrible pressure on the working class here by allowing other countries to move almost their entire surpluses into dollars increasing the capital account which by definition decreases the current account i.e. trade deficit. i.e. no manufacturing or export jobs are available here--consumer prices would rise in the US but much more like working class and lower middle class employment would be available in the manufacturing and export industries, and I think that's a tradeoff most Americans would be willing to make (just as most other governments have decided that's a tradeoff they're willing to make).

May 15, 2020
at
3:31 PM