FGM

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Give me 50:50 odds on a 55:45 or 60:40 coin, and I'll take that bet if I can do so 100 times in a row (and I know the direction of bias of course). But for a single $1000 bet? No thanks.

Presidential elections happen every 4 years. No casual observer has a sufficient sample size to calibrate their political instincts. A sequence of 10 coi…

Silver Bulletin

55/45 is a really close race

FGM

Oct 1

Yup that’s me. Or was me before I read Noah’s piece (and an article he linked to).

Conversely, there’s the guy who is sufficiently well-informed to know that the environmentalist scare campaign against nuclear power was misguided, but who insists “the real problem is that it’s too expensive,” without acknowledging that the scare campaign itself drove the high costs.

Matthew Yglesias

Or create an account

FGM

Oct 1

What if Carter didn't run the political business cycle in reverse? Prioritizing the Iranian hostage's lives and appointing Paul Volker killed his Presidency. You do something like that early in your administration, not near election year.

Or that's what I thought in the 1980s and 1990s. Reagan showed us the public relations advantages of …

Breaking the News

Jimmy Carter's First Century.