NYC Probables

April 5, 2020:

CSTE revises COVID-19 case definition. Probable cases now included

cste.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?am…

April 8, 2020:

Governor Gov Cuomo says the NY state “coronavirus” death numbers are coming directly from hospitals, and don’t include deaths at home and other settings.

April 9, 2020

CSTE announces case definition revision cste.org/news/500750/CSTE-Interim-Posit…

April 13/14, 2020:

NYC DOH adds 3,700 “probable [coronavirus] deaths” which occurred between March 11, 2020 - April 13, 2020, to the city’s running coronavirus death total. NYT shows the breakdown of confirmed v probable overall, by borough, and by setting of death. NYC DOH Commissioner Oxiris Barbot says, “Any patient who has had a positive coronavirus test and then later dies — whether at home or in a hospital — is being counted as a coronavirus death. To date, we have only been recording on people who have had the test.”

April 15, 2020:

CDC tells all states to include probable coronavirus deaths in their running totals.

April 24 2020:

JHU Github note: New York City, NY | Back distribution of probable deaths, removal of probable deaths as probable cases | time_series_covid19_confirmed_us.csv, time_series_covid19_deaths_us.csv | This change is in line with CDC reporting guidelines.

May 9, 2020:

WSJ article provides an account of the "order" of events regarding the adding of the probables and how JHU responded. cste.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?am…

"Methods differ even within states. New York state only reports test-confirmed Covid-19 deaths in its official online tally. New York City, on the other hand, started adding probable cases to city-specific data in mid-April, conforming with CDC guidelines. Dr. Gardner’s team [from JHU] manually added thousands of probable deaths to the dashboard as a result. Dr. Gardner said it isn’t her team’s role to adjudicate these differences. Where authorities report probable cases, she’ll include it. 'How am I supposed to figure out how many probable deaths there are in all 4,000 dots on my dashboard?' Dr. Gardner says. 'It is an impossible thing for me to do. It is hard enough to just to pull in the data that’s been reported.'"

Note for

wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/exagg…

UPDATE - related substack.com/profile/32813354-jessica-h…