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Regarding the RMB devaluation. All top traded currencies, the Yen, Euro, Pound and Australian dollar etc have been devalued over the last two years compared to the US dollar. I know from my recent holiday to the lovely West Coast of the USA the AUD was only worth 68 US Cents... ouch! But it was worth it to see the Californian Redwood forests and a baseball game.

So there is a global factor here in which over the last two years all major currencies lost value against the USD. I think mitigating this for China, is that it was never a major currency traded internationally, to the extent of the Euro or Pound. So what internally is also affecting the value of the RMB more recently?

Unclear policies are impacting China domestically. Dual Circulation and Common Prosperity, have stymied each other. Dual circulation was designed to increase domestic consumption whilst Common Prosperity was a confusing policy that led to a drastic drop in spending as no one wanted to seem rich for fear of loosing their wealth. Compounding this Covid Zero strategy has resulted in very low savings rates in areas locked down, a reduced services economy (stop start due to covid zero policy), a recorrecting property market and high levels of government stimulus are also driving the devaluation of the RMB. But China's domestic economy overall was doing relatively well for the first two years of Covid, it is only now that other nations have reopened that it is comparatively struggling.

For me this prompts more questions than answers, is just China also dealing with the effects of a range of policies more broadly structural issues - ie covid zero compounded existing problems? The value of the RMB has been seen as being undervalued historically, is the RMB given my above comments about the global state of currencies, just experiencing the same trend? What impacts does the Ukraine Crisis and China's position have on the RMB? Is that too much of an connection?

Sep 16, 2022
at
9:41 PM