Thoughts on the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah

Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is an important development in the mushrooming regional war.

Some thoughts:

Nasrallah was a legitimate target, but his assassination was still a major war crime

Unlike the overwhelming majority of those Israel has killed in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon over the past year, Nasrallah was a combatant and a legitimate target. But the massive bombing of the densely populated Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut which destroyed half a dozen apartment structures was a major war crime.

Those who argue otherwise must then explain why it would not be acceptable for Israel’s enemies to destroy IDF headquarters, which is situated in the middle of Tel Aviv near residences and popular attractions, and the surrounding area.

Nasrallah’s killing was a significant, but not a decisive blow to Hezbollah

Israel, like its western patrons, tends to be obsessed with the leadership of its opponents. In many cases, though, killing leaders doesn’t impact the organization much, and what impact it does have is short-term. This was a little different, though not entirely.

Nasrallah was a very powerful leader. He was a political leader as well as a military one and had the reputation as a masterful orator, charismatic leader, and strategic thinker. His assassination is most certainly a blow to Hezbollah.

More than that, Israel’s campaign, for all its criminality, has successfully targeted much of Hezbollah’s leadership, not just Nasrallah. All reports indicate that the organization is in some disarray.

But Nasrallah built a strong organization. It is an intimate, if controversial, part of Lebanon and its military apparatus is widespread and elaborate. This event will not eliminate Hezbollah, nor will it reduce it to a minor militia. It will continue to function in the near term and will rebuild again in the long term. Whether it will still be as effective only time will tell, of course. But history has shown that killing a group’s leaders is not an effective way of defeating that group.

Nasrallah’s successor

While Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, will take over leadership temporarily, Nasrallah’s successor must be chosen by the Shura Council and it appears the most likely heir to the leadership is a man Nasrallah had been grooming for the role, Hashem Safieddine. He is much in Nasrallah’s mold, but whether he will be as good as Nasrallah at strategic thinking and, like Nasrallah, reluctant or act impulsively or outside the organization’s strategy remains to be seen.

Israel’s next move

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated today that killing Nasrallah was a prerequisite for allowing residents of northern Israel to return to their homes. That notion very much depends on the next steps from Israel and how Hezbollah responds to this attack.

There is no doubt that Hezbollah is wounded at the moment. But it’s unlikely that they will respond to Israel’s actions not only by forgoing any response of their own but also by abandoning their stated solidarity with Gaza. Some Israeli analysts have suggested that this blow could soften Hezbollah and make them willing to accept moving their forces further north, away from Israel and agreeing to a halt in rocket fire. This strikes me as overly optimistic on their part.

But, while a Hezbollah rocket landed as far inside Israel as Jerusalem today, it will probably take at least a little time before Hezbollah can launch any significant response, if it decides to do so.

Israel’s killing of Nasrallah has been greeted with joy in Israel, and in other parts of the region. Hezbollah is a divisive organization that has bred both devotion and great anger among the people of the Levant. The devotion and support have come from its successful past in confronting Israel, but the anger (aside from the obvious enmity from Israelis) comes from its violent actions outside of Lebanon, most notably in Syria where their support of the Assad regime has included many horrific crimes against Syrian civilians (as well as against Palestinian refugees in Yarmouk, who were brutalized by both sides in the Syrian conflict).

But even among those who oppose, even despise Hezbollah, there is no positive feeling toward Israel for this. They may be happy Nasrallah is dead, but people in the region understand only too well that Israel has done this with a massive bombardment whose death toll remains unknown but is part of some 1,030 people Israel has killed in Lebanon the past two weeks, with tens of thousands injured and over 200,000 people internally displaced. Killing Nasrallah is not winning Israel any friends even among Hezbollah’s enemies.  

A different Israeli leader might try to capitalize on this success and use it to end the regional warfare on favorable terms. After all, Iran is unlikely to retaliate directly, Hezbollah is temporarily reeling, and Gaza has been reduced to rubble. But Netanyahu is much more likely to forego any such opportunity in pursuit of the confrontation with Iran—one that includes the United States—that he so craves, both for ideological reasons and to protect himself from prosecution in Israel.

Actions like this one increase Netanyahu’s chances of avoiding the criminal penalties he faces in Israeli courts and help him in his effort to regain the popularity—never great—that he once had which enabled him to hold on to the prime minister’s office for most of the past 15 years.

The short-term response from Hezbollah and its allies

As noted, Iran is not likely to respond to Nasrallah’s killing directly. They are working very hard to avoid taking Israel’s bait and getting drawn into a regional war. Ansarallah in Yemen (the Houthis) are limited in what they can do. If there is a response, it will come from Hezbollah directly.

But it’s not the near term we should be most concerned with. An immediate response may not be forthcoming, as Israel is very much on alert, as are its allies. It may come later, possibly even many weeks later.

Hezbollah is going to regroup. And eventually, if Israel continues its irresponsible and reckless behavior, Iran too will have to act, lest its own credibility be destroyed. Unless the United States and its allies act with all the tools at their disposal to rein Israel in, regional escalation will continue, and eventually there will be a major spark, that sets off a conflagration.