Some hard truths that I don't think many people are able to accept:

--Institutions are much more brittle than they appear. Think universities in the US, the EU, among quite a few others.

--Interest rates will remain higher for the foreseeable future, which has interesting second order effects on risk assets, including venture capital, tech startups, real estate, and more.

--Experts' knowledge is often much more limited than it appears.

--Girard remains underrated.

--Highly credentialed workers (lawyers, accountants, doctors, etc.) will, overall, fare poorly as AI becomes more capable. This is in part because highly credentialed people view their credentials as a kind of immunization against career volatility, and so they lose the muscle to be adaptable. Outliers are worth paying attention to here.