Chances are National will need to bring New Zealand First into the fold to form a government once all the votes are officially tallied.
National and NZ First were aligned on several issues prior to the election but there are a few things the two parties likely won’t agree on.
History has shown NZ First leader Winston Peters is rather good at extracting what he wants from a coalition deal. So if he does enter coalition talks, which of National’s election promises look likely to be cut?
Raising the retirement age
Both National and its preferred coalition partner ACT have said they want to lift the pension age from 65 to 67.
National plans to gradually roll that change out in 2044. ACT wants to raise the retirement age much sooner than that.
But the two parties will likely encounter fierce opposition from Peters if they do find themselves thrashing out a coalition deal.
NZ First’s pre-election manifesto clearly promises to keep the retirement age at 65, “no ifs, buts, or maybes”. It’s unlikely Peters would budget on that particular issue.
The foreign buyer tax
Peters was part of the Labour coalition government that brought in a ban on foreign buyers of residential properties in 2018 and it would be safe to assume he hasn’t changed his stance on that issue.
National plans to overturn that ban, with a 15% foreign buyer tax on houses worth more than $2 million part of the party’s pre-election tax plans.
One desperate reporter asked him for a wave as Peters was whisked away in a taxi from Wellington Airport.
While critics had plenty of questions about the numbers behind National’s foreign buyer tax scheme and the revenue it would raise, there may be a bigger problem ahead for that plan.
Peters told supporters on the election campaign trail that he was opposed to overturning the ban on foreign buyers.
His party’s name is “New Zealand First”, after all.
An online gambling tax
National’s tax plans also counted on closing a tax loophole to make offshore online gambling services pay tax.
The party said the tax should raise $179 million on average per year but NZ First’s election manifesto said that is “not credible”.
“This policy will boost the profits of offshore wagering corporations, at the expense of the funding of NZ Racing, sport, and the community,” it said.
Tax cuts
But National’s overall tax plan is likely one that will be debated should the party wind up negotiating with Peters.
Following the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) last month, NZ First said tax cuts should be off the table for now.
“Such is the deteriorated state of the nation’s books, no party can look voters in the eye and seriously say their tax cuts are affordable now,” Peters told supporters in a speech in Wellington.
“National’s tax package is both not credible nor reconcilable with its spending commitments.
“No nation, nor household, can survive with far less money through the front door but spending rocketing up and out the side door.
“That is voodoo economics.”
Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon said National won’t be talking about its coalition negotiations until the special votes confirm the election result, meaning the country will have to wait until November 3 to find out if Peters has changed his tune on those tax plans.
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