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Our team at @WPAIntel analyzed public research (not our polling) on the impact that Donald Trump had on down-ballot races in 18 and 22
From this, it is clear Donald Trump would be, in layman's terms, a disaster for Republicans in competitive seats as the 2024 GOP nominee
🧵
From this, it is clear Donald Trump would be, in layman's terms, a disaster for Republicans in competitive seats as the 2024 GOP nominee
🧵
A 2020 study by Ballard et al. found that Trump endorsement had a "meaningful negative" effect on the endorsed candidates’ general election performance in the 2018 midterms.
By their estimation, Trump cost Republicans a at least 15 seats (11 in the House and four in the Senate)
By their estimation, Trump cost Republicans a at least 15 seats (11 in the House and four in the Senate)
Ballard also looked at the impact that a Trump endorsement had on fundraising. What they found was surprising.
Trump did in fact boost a candidate’s fundraising — for the *Democrat* opponent of the Trump-backed candidate‼
Trump did in fact boost a candidate’s fundraising — for the *Democrat* opponent of the Trump-backed candidate‼
A 2023 Jacobson study found that Trump’s endorsements in last year's midterms increased Dem share in open seat districts and states, and cost Republicans control of the Senate.
It also found that Trump’s endorsement BOOSTED the Dem favorability and DECREASED the GOP's.
It also found that Trump’s endorsement BOOSTED the Dem favorability and DECREASED the GOP's.
A 2023 Barron study found that not only do Trump’s endorsements mobilize Dem donors & voters, his endorsements REDUCE support for GOP congressional candidates by as much as SIX POINTS.
Consider how many seats GOP would have been won if you add 6 pts to Republican-NV, GA, AZ…
Consider how many seats GOP would have been won if you add 6 pts to Republican-NV, GA, AZ…
Furthermore, at least two 2023 polls have found that Trump hurts down-ballot congressional Republicans.
In AZ, having Trump at the top of the ticket hurt the GOP congressional nominee by 10 POINTS — going from a solid win to a narrow loss against a generic Democrat.
In AZ, having Trump at the top of the ticket hurt the GOP congressional nominee by 10 POINTS — going from a solid win to a narrow loss against a generic Democrat.
In GA, Public Opinion Strategies found that Republicans would have a solid 9-point lead in the congressional ballot with Ron DeSantis at the top of the ticket.
With Trump, that lead is down to just 1 point.
With Trump, that lead is down to just 1 point.
With this in mind, our team studied the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index and identified 18 incumbent Republicans who would likely lose if Donald Trump is the face of the Republican Party in November.
Trump would cost Republicans the House.
Trump would cost Republicans the House.
Trump would also make it harder for us to take back the Senate:
- In MI in 2020, James lost by 1.7 while Trump lost by 2.7
- A Trump-backed candidate only won OH by 6 points in 2022 (Gov won by 25!)
- In AZ, Trump at the top of the ticket ensures a win for Democrats
- In MI in 2020, James lost by 1.7 while Trump lost by 2.7
- A Trump-backed candidate only won OH by 6 points in 2022 (Gov won by 25!)
- In AZ, Trump at the top of the ticket ensures a win for Democrats
Plainly stated…
We all know the story about King Midas’ golden touch. 👑
Well, Donald Trump has the fecal touch. Everything he touches turns to 💩
His candidacy ensures a second term for Biden + costs GOP the House and more winnable Sen seats (just like 18 & 22)
We all know the story about King Midas’ golden touch. 👑
Well, Donald Trump has the fecal touch. Everything he touches turns to 💩
His candidacy ensures a second term for Biden + costs GOP the House and more winnable Sen seats (just like 18 & 22)
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