Luxon's popularity low compared to other first-term PMs

The usual honeymoon period for new prime ministers appears to have eluded Christopher Luxon, who has held steady rather than getting the traditional post-election popularity bump.

While his new opposition rival, Labour leader Chris Hipkins, fell 10 points in the preferred prime minister ratings in the latest 1News Verian Poll, Luxon himself showed no gain from his pre-election position, remaining on 25%.

His poll showing also remains notably lower than other first-term PMs in recent decades who have been in the 41-51% range.

One political scientist said the outcome was unusual for a new prime minister and could be a sign of rough waters ahead for the coalition.

Victoria University senior lecturer and political scientist Lara Greaves said the situation was "very strange", adding that the open-ended preferred prime minister question was one that already heavily favoured the incumbent.

"We would just generally expect to see a honeymoon bump and it's not there," she said. "We do have what people will call a honeymoon effect - people will like them and give them a shot. Part of our politics is giving people a bit of a fair go."

She said Winston Peters and David Seymour had been occupying the media spotlight since the election, whilst the Government also faced a plethora of negative headlines.

Historically, all prime ministers and governments in the MMP era have tended to see a bump in support following their swearing-in. In the party vote in this week's poll, National gained just 1%, Act dropped 1% and New Zealand First was steady compared to last October.

Back in 2000, Helen Clark enjoyed a 13-point bump in preferred prime minister polling, whilst former PM Jenny Shipley carried on as leader of the opposition. Labour also saw its party vote grow 11% over their first several months in office.

Nine years later, following Clark's defeat, successor John Key rose in support from 40% to 51% as preferred prime minister in the February following the 2008 election.

Key's National Party also saw a large surge in its party vote - from 45% at the election to 57% in February 2009's 1News poll.

Following the swearing-in of Jacinda Ardern's 2017 coalition government, she also posted a 10-point lift in her preferred prime minister numbers by the following February - though Labour's rise in party vote numbers was smaller than Clark and Key's.

Other recent polls carried out in February this year by Curia and Talbot Mills suggest Luxon has received, at best, a small bump in support by the leader-based metric. Both polling companies carry out work for the big political parties.

Greaves said Luxon's weaker profile as a leader is quite different to Key and Ardern - the two most prominent PMs preceding him.

"One thing this lines up with, really interestingly, is when we look at things like like Vote Compass data - Luxon was struggling in that likeability factor before the election.

"When I have compared him to previous prime ministers and where they sat in terms of likeability on the election study, he was still pretty far back. He seems to have a bit of a likeability issue overall.

"One of the things I was expecting with this poll was a bit of a bump in the preferred prime minister rating, so it might speak to a broader issue," she said.

Some have drawn parallels between Key and Luxon, who both came from the business world and had short careers as MPs before taking the top job. But Greaves said: "It's a bit of a tough comparison for Luxon, to see that he's not kind of living up to that level of likeability or as preferred prime minister, but I mean, there's still this broader question of whether that matters that much overall."

She pointed to dynamics within the new coalition government, having "two very strong deputy prime ministers with quite strong personalities" affecting how voters perceived Luxon.

And that might not be all bad news for the PM. "If this government was disliked, there's quite a possibility that voters would attribute it down to Winston Peters and David Seymour, with National actually getting more support in the longer term."

Meanwhile, Hipkins' 10-point fall from Monday's poll appeared relatively usual for former prime ministers facing a post-election fall from grace.

None of those in the loser's shoes before him - Jenny Shipley, Clark, and Bill English - went on to fight another election after being prime minister. He has previously said he will stay on as leader through to the next election.

Speaking to 1News on Monday, the Labour leader suggested the result wasn’t what he experienced "on the ground" and that polls fluctuated. Hipkins said the point at which he should resign as leader was "certainly not something that I’m contemplating".

For Hipkins to turn his numbers around, Greaves said the closest comparison could be to Clark's time in opposition as leader between 1996 and 1999.