CinemaCon Spotlight Shines on Blockbusters, but What Box Office Really Needs Is More Volume
The annual CinemaCon gathering of film exhibitors is underway in Las Vegas once again, and the state of movie theaters is at last in a much better spot.
A TD Cowen report in March pinned domestic box office for the first quarter of 2023 as being up 28% year over year, with 19 wide releases playing in more than 2,000 theaters, up 19% when compared with the same period last year.
Still, the box office is down 23% versus the first-quarter average from 2017 to 2019, while the number of wide releases is down by as much as 32% from the same period, spelling a volume problem.
In March, Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian predicted an increase of around 30 nationwide films will cement 2023’s domestic total as having at least 100 such films by year’s end, which is a solid improvement that gets the industry closer to what it used to be.
It’s an obvious but necessary point to underscore: The more movies, the better, especially if they can’t be seen anywhere else.
Studios do see eye to eye with exhibitors on that front now. During Warner Bros. Discovery’s Tuesday presentation, CEO David Zaslav assured exhibitors the company had no plans to rush new films to renovated streamer Max when it relaunches next month.
But that doesn’t solve the volume problem when studios are not yet back to releasing films at pre-pandemic rates. Exhibitors may be salivating at showy films including historical epic “Napoleon,” shown during Sony’s presentation Monday night and scheduled for Thanksgiving, but films are still needed to bridge the gaps between the year’s productions aiming for blockbuster status.
The likely solution is what formerly contributed to the very problem of theatrical volume: streaming films.
It sounds crazy, but films like “Napoleon” are increasingly being produced in partnership with the likes of Apple, which will get the film on its own service following Sony’s theatrical run. The same will be true for Paramount’s Leonardo DiCaprio-led “Killers of the Flower Moon” a month before “Napoleon” releases.
Much more is needed than two flashy co-productions, though. That’s where Apple and Amazon’s $1 billion plans to produce films intended as first-run films for the theatrical market could make all the difference in erasing the volume gap that’s defined the pandemic box office.
Until those new films come into fruition, why not continue to experiment with theatrical releases for already produced films, as Amazon just did with “Air” in April?
Ahead of CinemaCon, Variety conducted several interviews with exhibitor leaders, including University Mall Theaters owner Mark O’Meara ahead of CinemaCon, who remarked how “Air” “just blew up” and lamented the lack of mid-budget movies coming from the studios.
Before CinemaCon, Atlas Cinemas owner Gabriel Saluan emphasized not just the lack of “quality” films overall but genre films, echoing O’Meara’s complaint that “mid-level” and family films have been absent.
Horror is one genre theater owners have expressed a desire for. Universal’s “M3GAN” scored in January, while Paramount’s “Scream 6” has continued the studio’s successful streak with horror after becoming the top-grossing film of the franchise off its $35 million budget, showing that familiar horror and more generous budgets can be a good match.
CinemaCon is far from over — Disney and Universal’s presentations are today, with Lionsgate and Paramount concluding the week Thursday — but exhibitors already have much to look forward to in approaching the end of the pandemic’s film drought for theaters.
