Sleeper Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship

NOTE: For three events, Rob is focusing only on golfers needing a good performance to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. In this second edition, all five below enter the FedEx St. Jude Championship outside the top 70 in points. Here are the scenarios for those outside the top 70 trying to advance.

Adam Long(+400 for a Top 20) … This should be a piece of cake because he’s a top-20 machine … when he makes cuts. It’s been the narrative over time because he continues to deliver on capitalizing on opportunities on weekends. This is the last tournament of the season with a cut and, seeded 76th, he’s among the throng that has only one option to advance. Prior to an illness bouncing him from last week’s Wyndham Championship before the second round, he connected four top 25s, the last two of which top 20s. Additionally, in his only prior appearance at TPC Southwind in 2019, he signed for a pair of sub-70s on the weekend (of the no-cut WGC at the time) and finished T24.

Brandon Wu(+180 for a Top 40) … At 71st in points, he’s first in line at the door to enter the next phase of the overall objective, so he’s essentially a default inclusion here. Everything at this point is a bonus for the rookie who, despite an impressive foray with a PGA TOUR card, is grouped with the peloton in a seriously deep class. However, with how he’s performed in the second half of the season, he’s a dark horse to surge all the way to the finale. In the last five months, he’s risen for a pair of podium finishes among four top 10s, the latest of which on Sunday at Sedgefield (T8). He’s 17th on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, a measure of execution illustrating confidence no matter the track, including in his debut at TPC Southwind.

Adam Scott(+110 for a Top 40) … Of all of the golfers outside the top 70 entering the Playoffs, the 42-year-old Aussie presents as the most reliable to advance. We know all about him, of course, but he’s 77th in points in part because none of his 17 starts went for a top three. For a guy with 39 podiums in his career but only two completed seasons with zero, this is what the absence looks like. Depending on how the ball bounces at TPC Southwind, this prop likely wouldn’t be enough to climb into next week’s field, but even so, it’s still a reasonable expectation for our considerations. All four of his tries here have resulted in a top 40, the most recent three since 2017.

Adam Svensson(+200 for a Top 40) … Focusing only on the nearest objects in the rearview mirror, the Canadian angles in strong enough to be considered a threat to advance. He’s 90th in points and will need better than a top 25, but that’s pretty much been his weekly outcome of late. Since the AT&T Byron Nelson, he’s 9-for-10 with five top 25s, all of which in his last six starts. His irons define his strength, so with relatively small targets at TPC Southwind, that should play up in his debut.

Chesson Hadley(+250 for a Top 40) … If you’re keen for a longshot, look to Chesson, his chip and a chair. Seven weeks ago today, he was outside the top 200 in the FedExCup. Today, while riding one of his patented heaters, he’s 106th. And he hasn’t rested! Since the Travelers Championship, he’s 6-for-7 with four top 10s. He likely would need no worse than another top 10 at TPC Southwind to consider keeping this groove going, but he’s already crossed the goal line in the context of achieving the most important objective – keeping his card. He’s a free play on house money with everything to gain.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM.