Exclusive polling has revealed how New Zealanders feel on a range of crucial questions about public spending and the country’s finances.
A Q+A Verian poll was commissioned to accompany the show's debate between Labour’s finance spokesperson Grant Robertson and National’s finance spokesperson Nicola Willis.
Watch the Q+A with Jack Tame finance debate from 9am on TVNZ1 or TVNZ+.
The survey of 1000 potential voters revealed widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of the economy, along with a broad unwillingness among voters to personally contribute more towards collective outcomes.
On whether New Zealand is currently on the right or wrong economic track, just 19% said the right track. Sixty-five percent say the country is on the wrong economic track. The remainder were undecided or didn’t give an answer.
This is broadly consistent with polling conducted by Talbot Mills, which the NZ Herald reported in August showed a majority of respondents thought the country overall is on the wrong track in what was described as “the most negative result on the question since about 2001”.
The Q+A-Verian poll showed more muted support for a change of government being the solution.
When asked “do you believe a change to a National-led government would improve New Zealand’s economic situation”, 37% of respondents said there would be an improvement, compared to 21% saying a change would make the economic situation worse and 32% saying it would make no difference.
The results were even more split when people were asked whether a change to a National-led government would improve New Zealand’s social situation.
Thirty percent of respondents said this change would improve New Zealand society, 27% said it would make society worse, and 32% said it would make no difference.
Opposition parties have consistently sought to present a change in Government as being the best way to alter New Zealand’s fortunes.
“Three weeks from now, every single voter gets the only chance they have for the next three years to choose a better direction for New Zealand,” National leader Christopher Luxon said on Friday.
Labour, by contrast, has presented itself as a Government that has carefully navigated difficult economic conditions, including dealing with Covid-19 and inflation caused by a range of international factors.
Inflation
The Q+A Verian poll also indicates the economic plans of both major parties would contribute to inflation, with new money being introduced into the economy through consumer spending.
National is promising income tax cuts by raising the thresholds at which the three lowest marginal tax bands kick in, meaning income could be higher before additional income gets taxed at a higher rate.
Labour, meanwhile, is promising a series of measures, including lifting the Working for Families abatement threshold in 2026, removing GST from fresh fruit and vegetables, and boosting the in-work tax credit.
When asked what they would do with money returned to them by the government, a slim majority of respondents to the Q+A Verian poll said they would spend it.
Forty-four percent said they would spend it on everyday essentials and 7% said they would spend it on something they wouldn’t normally buy. Meanwhile, 44% said they would save the extra money — essentially taking it out of circulation for the meantime.
Spending tradeoffs
Respondents to the Q+A Verian poll were also asked how they felt about a range of spending tradeoffs, both for the Government and for themselves personally.
National and ACT have both promised significant cuts to government spending, which would either directly or indirectly result in some jobs being lost.
National has not put a figure on the exact number of jobs they’d expect to go, while ACT leader David Seymour has put the figure at higher than 10,000 jobs.
Those polled were evenly split on whether they’d support reductions in government spending if it meant people losing their jobs, with 38% supporting the idea and 42% opposing.
Respondents were against the prospect of personally paying more tax to reduce the level of poverty in New Zealand.
In response to that question, 53% were against personally paying more tax, while 40% were in favour of paying more tax to reduce New Zealand’s level of poverty.
The gap was wider on whether respondents would be willing to pay more for fuel and electricity in order for New Zealand to meet climate change commitments.
The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is a tool being used to help New Zealand meet its 2030 and 2050 climate commitments. Through the ETS, emissions are 'capped' at a certain level, with the price of emissions under the scheme rising over time as the cap reduces.
Just 27% were prepared to see prices rise, while 68% were not prepared to see prices rise.
Between September 16 and September 19, 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.
Q+A is public interest journalism funded by NZ on Air.
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