Analysis: Final election results will be released this Friday afternoon – and the clock is about to start ticking very loudly for Christopher Luxon, writes political editor Jessica Mutch McKay.
Once the final election results are in this week there will be growing pressure on Christopher Luxon to get a government formed quick smart.
He’s talked a big game about his business negotiation skills so he’s got something to prove. He’s also had three weeks to thrash out some coalition talks while the special votes are counted and numbers are checked.
Many New Zealanders are keen to just get on with it because nothing can happen until a government is actually formed and Christopher Luxon is actually Prime Minister.
Once the special votes are released at 2pm on Friday, the clock starts ticking very loudly for the Prime Minister-elect.
There are a few reasons for this.
Firstly, he’s pitched to Kiwis that he’s the man to get things done, he’s the one who is going to get New Zealand back on track, so he needs to be able to start putting up some legislation to do that.
There’s also a looming trip to the Pacific Islands Forum in early November, which would be a stellar opportunity to meet with the Australian and Pacific leaders in his first foray into foreign affairs.
If he doesn’t make that, then a short trip to APEC in San Francisco is next up in mid-November. APEC is traditionally the first trip for New Zealand Prime Ministers because it takes place just after the election and gives the new leader a chance to show their diplomatic skills on the world stage.
The Prime Minister in waiting may want to hold off on the House sitting until he’s back so that he can hold the reins of what’s looking increasingly like a three-pronged coalition government.
But again, that would delay the ability to actually get things done. There are processes needed to change laws - it’s not just the flick of a switch.
The business of politics
Business deals are different. In business it’s possible for all parties to walk away from the deal saying it’s too hard and not enough common ground.
That’s not the case here. The parties in question need to do a deal unless New Zealand wants another election, and even as political editor, this doesn’t seem appetising right now.
The other factor is the political players in the mix. Both New Zealand First’s Winston Peters and ACT’s David Seymour are experienced and have been given a mandate by New Zealanders to act on their behalf.
This is not Peters’ first rodeo and he’ll want to make sure he gets the best deal for his supporters.
He’s less time bound than Luxon too. Traditionally, Peters would rather get things right than rush things out. There’s also a possibility that Peters may pick up the Foreign Affairs portfolio, so he’d want to have everything ironed out before the avalanche of work came down.
There’s a weird lull at parliament at the moment, almost like a pre-Christmas slow-down.
Public servants are flooding Wellington cafes, not just because of the sunny weather in the capital but also because lots of them are in a caretaker role as well. I think most players will agree three weeks feels too long to do the necessary checks and balances for a final result.
There’s also the fact that coalition talks have been happening in Auckland too, far away from the usual seat of power.
But that lull is about to come to an abrupt end.
There are a lot of big decisions to be made and handed down in the next week – coalition compromises, new ministers and a whole lot of new staff. Let the pomp and pageantry of swearing in a new government begin.
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