Poll: Luxon likely to need that coalition phonecall to Peters

New Zealand First has strengthened its chances of taking a place in the next government, according to the latest 1News Verian Poll results.

Winston Peters’ party has lifted another 1% to 6% since last week, giving it some breathing space above the threshold for a place in Parliament.

The poll result caps a dramatic rise for Peters and his party, which was on just 3% and facing another term in the Parliamentary wilderness in July’s poll.

National, meanwhile, was down 1% to 36% in tonight’s results and Act was steady on 12%. That would give National 45 seats and Act 15 – a total of 60 seats, one short of the 61 needed to form a government - and leave National leader Christopher Luxon relying on Peters’ support.

Luxon this week opened the door to NZ First saying, if he needed to, he would pick up the phone to Peters after October 14’s election results are in.

Tonight’s poll indicated NZ First would have eight MPs and that Luxon would be making that call.

Luxon told 1News: “We want to secure another one or two seats so that we can follow our strong preference that is to be in a strong, stable National-Act government that can actually work well together and actually get things done for the New Zealand people.”

He finally conceded this week that he would call Peters on October 15 if he needs to, but Luxon repeated today: “That is not my preference.”

Act leader David Seymour said that having to work with Peters would be “complicated” but that his party would “do their best”.

Peters told his supporters at a campaign event today that they would “decide this election”.

Labour continued its gradual slide, down another 1% to 26% - a 10% drop since March - giving the party just 33 MPs.

The Greens were up 1% to 13%, giving them a projected 17 MPs, and Te Pāti Māori was down 1% to 2%. Presuming Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi retains the Waiariki electorate, the party would get two seats. That would leave the left bloc well short on 52 MPs.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has also said he’s worked with Peters in Cabinet before and he wouldn’t want to do it again, further reducing the left’s chance of forming a coalition.

Voting is now open for overseas voters and those in New Zealand can cast their ballot from October 2 up to polling day on October 14.

Hipkins and Luxon, the two men vying to run the country after the election, remain tied in the preferred prime minister stakes.

Both are on 23%, no change from last week’s poll. Likewise, Act leader David Seymour on 5% and Peters on 4% are also steady.

Marama Davidson is up 1% to 2% while no one else breaks the 1% barrier.

National – 36% (down 1%)

Labour – 26% (down 1%)

Greens – 13% (up 1%)

ACT – 12% (steady)

New Zealand First – 6% (up 1%)

Te Pāti Māori – 2% (down 1%)

The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1% (steady)

NewZeal – 1% (up 1%)

New Conservatives – 1% (up 1%)

NewZealand Loyal – 1% (steady)

Don't know/refused to say 11% (down 1%)

(Calculation assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the Waiariki electorate.)

National – 45

Labour – 33

Green – 17

ACT – 15

New Zealand First – 8

Te Pāti Māori – 2

Total 120

Christopher Luxon – 23% (steady)

Chris Hipkins – 23% (steady)

David Seymour – 5% (steady)

Winston Peters – 4% (steady)

Marama Davidson - 2% (up 1%)

James Shaw - 1% (steady)

Jacinda Ardern - 1% (steady)

Chlöe Swarbrick – 1% (down 1%)

Nicola Willis 1% (down 1%)

Liz Gunn - 1% (up 1%)

See the full poll results and methodology here.

Between September 23 and September 26 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.