HOLYROOD will see a pro-independence majority of MSPs after next year's elections despite the rise of Reform UK, according to a new poll.
The Survation research, conducted for public affairs agency Quantum Communications, predicted that the SNP would win 34% of the constituency share and 29% on the regional vote, while Scottish Labour came second on 23% and 20% respectively.
Reform UK polled well above the Tories, at 17% in constituency vote share and 16% on the list – the highest figures the party has ever recorded in a Scottish poll.
The full results were:
Constituency vote share
- SNP: 34% (-1)
- Labour: 23% (+1)
- Reform UK: 17% (+4)
- Conservatives: 12% (-2)
- Liberal Democrats: 8% (n/c)
- Green: 4% (-2)
- Alba: 1% (n/c)
Regional list vote share:
- SNP: 29% (-2)
- Labour: 20% (-1)
- Reform UK: 16% (+3)
- Conservatives: 13% (-1)
- Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
- Greens: 8% (-1)
- Alba: 3% (+1)
According to calculations by the Diffley Partnership, the full results would see 55 seats for the SNP, 19 for Labour, 17 for the Conservatives, 14 for Reform UK, 13 for the LibDems, 10 for the Greens, and one for Alba, if replicated in 2026.
That would mean Holyrood had a narrow majority of pro-independence MSPs – 66 out of 129.
For the poll, Survation interviewed 1012 Scots aged 16 or over between March 6 and 13.
Responding to the results, Mark Diffley, the founder of Diffley Partnership, said: “Labour and the Conservatives will be most disappointed by the poll, with both parties losing ground.
“Only six in 10 of those who voted Labour last year intend to do so again, with the party losing support to the SNP and Reform in equal measure.
“This makes Labour’s task very difficult, but it needs to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform if it is going to recover ground and challenge next year.”
And professor Nicola McEwen, director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Glasgow, said: “The rise of Reform across the UK has been one of the key features of polling in the last year. Until now, Scotland had seemed to buck the trend, but this poll puts Reform UK at its highest share of the vote in Scotland to date.
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“The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.
“The party is also polling strongly in party list preferences… in the three regions where it is strongest, Reform UK now has around the same vote share as Labour.
“Although small numbers in the sample point to the need for caution, 16 to 24-year-olds represent Reform’s strongest voter group by age.
“This is not unique to Scotland. Across the UK and Europe, far-right parties today appear able to capture support from young people to levels normally associated with the far left.”
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