Paul J. Davies, Columnist

Why Your Bonus Won’t  Match Your Performance This Year

There is likely to be greater disparity than normal in banker pay, with money going to those at risk of being poached by rivals.

Photographer:  Jin Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images

You don’t need to be a superstar quant trader to figure that banker bonuses will disappoint this year. Markets have struggled for direction, while capital raising and deal making have been dire. But pay is likely to be far more mixed than headline trends suggest: Many rewards will be granted to potential more than performance.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have signaled they’ll be more generous with bonuses this year than revenue alone justifies so that their best people aren’t tempted away. At other banks, even where the overall bonus pool is cut from last year’s levels, there is likely to be a wider disparity than normal, with money going to those people at risk of being poached by rivals.