Although my current leaning is towards “not likely” - I’m starting to consider if this massive rip higher in JPY may have actually been a (premeditated) 🇯🇵MOF yentervention…

(As per

By “premeditated” - I don’t necessarily even mean LDP election outcome (i.e. who may be winning) related, but even purely market behavior based. Over the last week+ (post FOMC & BOJ), USDJPY’s upside move has been that familiar “unconditional upside” drip-drip, and then heading into the LDP election, upside started to accelerate.

Then, boom: USDJPY plunges from > 146 → 142-handle (i.e. approximately in-line with prior yentervention increments of -¥4 to -¥5 drops), AND, without the counter-knee-jerk recovery thereafter.

The move downward started at 🇯🇵15:22, spot USDJPY 146.21 → 144.70, but the corresponding trading volume for Dec24 JPY futures ↑ move was only 6k contracts.

Then at 🇯🇵15:23, as spot USDJPY continued plunging down to 143.50, JPY futures volume traded 12k. And for the following 1 minute window at 15:24, futures volume traded 4.8k contracts.

So, when spot USDJPY initially made its move, only ½ the amount of futures volume traded vs the following minute, which MAY suggest this was spot-USDJPY-driven / futures-followed. (It may also just be a matter of when the market activity began vs arbitrary 60-second increments of time frame windows that are being snap-shotted).

If it were a yentervention, again, it wouldn’t necessarily be “in favor of” an election-based motivation or something, it may very well just be MOF finger on the blast-USD-trigger due to pure market-based behavior, with a potential (& then realized) catalyst of a leadership election overhanging.

Like I said, my current opinion leans towards NOT-yentervention, BUT, it is a possibility that is on my mind and will be exploring.

Otherwise, this would imply/show that apparently the FX markets respond far more to 🇯🇵fiscal/political outcomes than they do 🇺🇸FOMC + 🇯🇵BOJ policies, at least for this particular moment