Does everyone use top indicators wrong and was the pullback predictable?

On October 6th one of the most reliable on-chain signals flashed.

It showed Bitcoin has entered the later stage of its bull cycle.

…

— 📌 | What triggered it

🔹 The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) signalled +0.56.

🔹 In 2017 and 2021, that same range (0.55–0.75) marked the shift from optimism to euphoria.

🔹 When NUPL hits this zone, history says we’re close to the end of the bull market.

…

— 📌 | Why this cycle is different

🔹 I don’t expect us to see 0.75 this time.

🔹 My personal take-profit level for this indicator is 0.6 — about 20% below the old highs.

🔹 The logic is simple: people are quicker to sell now. Gone are the days of “diamond hands”. Most traders got burned last cycle and they’ve learned.

They’ll dump faster, not hold longer.

…

— 📌 | The lesson

The indicators still matter but only if you use them adjusted for this cycle and a rounded top instead of a blow off top.

Once everyone starts watching the same signal, it stops being an edge.

If you wait for confirmation, you’ll end up round-tripping your gains.

Just like last time.