Hmmm good question! For one thing, I have to bear in mind the extreme worst-but-unlikely case of nuclear war, a serious pandemic, something that abruptly wipes out much of the population and life-as-we-know-it. I think such an armageddon scenario is unlikely, but I bring it up because it leads me to see Honest Sorcerer’s timeline as moderate! And in terms of probability, his most compelling point, which makes me feel like “I can’t argue with it and therefore have to accept it as likely”, is his Net Energy analysis. That Rystad chart (which is fairly “mainstream” data, nothing fringe/crazy) seems to indicate that we’re on the brink of a major downward turn. I believe that where the most wiggle room exists is in terms of top-down response (governments could impose fuel rationing, stop wasting manufacturing capacity on junk) and bottom-up response (people could voluntarily develop resilience skills and cooperate). Will we?? Gotta stay tuned and find out!