The bears on OpenAI are starting to get louder. 🐻

Just 3 years after ChatGPT, they are already losing marketshare to Anthropic, Google and others.

Their AGI marketing, over-promising and mega-deals don’t seem based on fundamentals, or good faith. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Partners like Oracle, Softbank and even Nvidia has too much exposure to them, drawing skepticism from some corners of the market in the datacenter roll-out, debt, leases taken on.

Capital won’t save you if your execution on product is underwhelming. I’m almost* ready to call OpenAI the WeWork of the AI Infrastructure era. They are increasingly relying on coping the IP and ideas of others. I don’t believe they have managed to retain top tier AI talent. They have mostly squandered ChatGPT traffic thus far.

They don’t have many tricks left in the bag, as their model releases continue to underwhelm. Even their head of PR/Comms stepped down. The AGI pitch has damaged their professional credibility. If it weren’t for NDAs, their former talent would tell horror stories about leadership.

Meta managed to poach their top tier Chinese AI talent in 2025. OAI seem to be more Peter Thiel mercenaries, than good citizens. Sam Altman appears more interested in personal VC deals, than in doing what’s necessary for decent IPO prep for the company and diversifying revenue. Alarm bells should be ringing. 🚨 2026 could end in tragedy for OpenAI, a once pioneer of the space.

OpenAI’s demand for computing power—by far its biggest cost—has remained tightly coupled to revenue. But revenue growth is likely to slow in 2026 as they have been over-taken by competitors in terms of momentum. Even Chinese model makers show more impressive frequency of real innovation now. What to do? More capital won’t save Sam Altman’s empire.