One explanation for the surge in capex by Amazon and Google that's not fully understood is that the market for AI chips is going to enable them to be huge winners in the space as demand for TPUs and Tranium chips surges in the late 2020s.
The surge in Enterprise AI adoption of the mid to late 2020s also really benefits AWS and is a significant overall catalyst. Amazon Leo, its low earth orbit competitor to starlink has now entered Beta.
Amazon overtakes Microsoft as the most diversified technology company by 2027 in my view. Many of their businesses are growing faster like advertising, around 35% average per year since 2021.
Amazon's future in physical AI and Robotics is also not well understood. The Machine Economy era proper actually begins (around 2032) when Amazon more aggressively automates Warehouse and logistics jobs at their over 1,300 + facilities.
Finally Amazon will become a huge beneficiary of Blue Origins serious entry into space infrastructure namely orbital compute.
Andy Jassy's shareholder letter is a fascinating read to the importance of Amazon's surging Caoex that is decimating its free cash flow. Amazon will be an almost unrecognizable company by 2035. Of The magnificent seven its capex is now over 30%.
Apr 14
at
6:35 AM
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