Illumina and the Chinese market

Illumina published their FY 2025 results and we can now get a sense of how big the Chinese problem is for the giant in Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS).

As of early 2026, the situation between Illumina and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is one of "partial relief." While the most severe restriction (an explicit export ban) has been lifted, the company remains in a difficult regulatory position that continues to hamper its business in China.

Summary

• The Export Ban: Lifted in November 2025. Illumina can technically ship sequencers to China again.

• The "Unreliable Entity" Status:Remains in place. Illumina is still on China's "Unreliable Entity List" (UEL). This is a critical distinction—while the ban is gone, the blacklisting remains, creating significant friction for sales.

• Business Impact: The business has not "bounced back." The environment is described by Illumina leadership as "muted," with China sales remaining flat or declining while the rest of the company returns to growth.

Timeline of the Conflict

• February 4, 2025: MOFCOM placed Illumina on the Unreliable Entity List (UEL). This was widely seen as a retaliatory measure against U.S. trade policies and tariffs. Being on this list implies the company is a threat to China's national interests.

• March 4, 2025: The situation escalated when MOFCOM implemented a specific import ban on Illumina’s genetic sequencers. This effectively froze Illumina’s ability to sell its core hardware in China.

• November 10, 2025: MOFCOM lifted the import ban on the sequencers. However, it explicitly stated that Illumina would remain on the UEL.

Business Development Since the Ban was Lifted (Late 2025 – Early 2026)

Since the removal of the export ban, Illumina’s China business has not seen a rapid recovery. Although Illumina can physically ship products to China now, being on the Unreliable Entity List creates a "chilling effect" for Chinese customers. Many Chinese customers are switching to domestic competitors (like MGI/BGI) to avoid the bureaucratic hassle and political risk of buying from a UEL-listed company.

Illumina are focusing on servicing existing install bases and selling consumables (which were generally less affected than the hardware), rather than pushing for massive new instrument placements, which are harder to sell under current restrictions.

More on Illumina and other companies in NGS and Multi-omics on my substack: