People have a tendency of looking for single causes for events. But that's not how the universe works. Even in situations where a narrow gate allows only a single cause at a particular moment in time, what preceded that moment is a network of causes.

What caused capitalism? Was it the deterioration of feudal states and monarchic power, or was it the growing rise of influence by the merchant class? Was it the liberalization of the move toward decentralized political power manifesting through parliamentary democracy, or was it the steady enclosure of the commons forcing commoners to urbanize and join the industrialization of society? The truth is, it was these, and many more.

So when I see people seek a singular cause for the war in Iran, I sigh. There is no single cause. There is a complex system of causes.

The timing of the Russian economy on the brink of shutting down, and the subsequent potential end of the war in Ukraine, spurred Putin to get Trump to do something drastic.

Netenyahu facing the "end" of the genocide in Gaza with the establishment of the Board of Peace, and with this lack of war-time powers having to face the coming political front at home, with criminal charges, maneuvered Trump into going ahead with the Iranian bombardment.

US internal politics, with the deep unpopularity of ICE, massive potential for unrest stemming from the affordability crisis and mounting pressure from the partial release of the Epstein files, spurred a decision to launch a forever war.

Then there's the fact that business deals in the oil industry required the US to seize a higher degree of control in Venezuelan oil, and for that Heavy crude oil to be useful to US refineries, Trump needed access to Iranian Oil, since the lighter, sweeter Iranian oil is used to blend the Venezuelan oil suitable for US refineries.

And underneath everything, there's the tech bro infrastructure issue. Oracle has spent decades integrating itself into the governing infrastructure of the middle east. Amazon and Google and Microsoft have been doing a similar push over the last decade, and the AI Hyperscalars have been going hard at launching data centers throughout the region. All of this infrastructure comes under immediate threat if Russia, Israel, and the US decide to start a bombing campaign in Iran, and since the bombing campaign was required to further the interests of all 3 nations, military protection for that infrastructure becomes paramount.

There are so many other causes here too, from seeking a regime change that would align with Western and Israeli interests, to weakening China's rise in differential power and forcing them to come to the negotiating table at the upcoming meeting with Trump where they will no doubt be mostly focused on rare earth mineral access, to influencing NATO's military spending, and tinkering with the South East Asian semiconductor market.

The point is that seeking single causes for complex systems dynamics leads to incorrect assessments of motives and flawed predictions about outcomes. And now, more than ever, we need to get accurate in our assessments and predictions so we have the best chance of taking the right steps moving forward.