Comment

An amazing piece which explains a lot. The implicit assumption of this policy choice of course is that China, Russia and Iran will realize their limitations and play nice in the long run. There are (at least two) problems with this plan.

1. Given their posture of aggressively resisting the US and using force (Russia - Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, it's own population i.e. Sergei Magnitsky, Iran - Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, brutally crushing the Green revoloution, China - Uighurs, Hong Kong, zero Covid, threatening Taiwan, aggressive hacking and wolf policy), how long will it take, how many millions of people will be killed, and countries destroyed? And will they only realize their limitations if they are defeated by hard power which means WW III? 2. How can you expect leaders who aspire to total control of their societies and whose greatest fear is an uprising from their own people (who have no hard power, just soft power), to tolerate opposition from other countries and people that isn't backed up by hard power?

As the husband of a Cuban woman whose family fled post revolutionary Cuba and still maintains ties to family trapped in Cuba, I can tell you that the leaders of Russia, China and Iran, let alone Venezuela, North Korea and other tyrannical states, do not respect anything but brute force and the threat of their being deposed. They are used to getting what they want and the only way to contain them is the George Kennan approach of resisting everywhere (ideally not by force but by aggressive policies designed to build up opposition to them and supporting such opposition).

As further evidence, read Bill Browder's Red Notice and Freezing Order. The Russians are relentless and will not stop in their pursuit of their objectives and to assume they'll see the light is foolhardy unless resisted at every step.

Hopefully Russia's debacle in Ukraine will slow China's aggression and that of the others but for how long?