AI 2027 now has a follow up called AI 2040: Plan A, which is a scenario where things go well. I got to be an early reviewer on it. I have extremely agnostic takes on the difficulty of alignment and the economics of advanced AI, but this scenario is the clearest concrete description of what the world could like under the specific worldview of:

-Extremely rapid AI progress

-Alignment right now is very difficult

-AI very able to substitute for human inputs in the economy

-Assuming in Plan A that things are governed well at the global level

Each of those I need to throw my hands up and say "Man I have zero clue at all" but I'm always happy when different sides in the AI debate make their assumptions clear, and the consequences of the assumptions here are really wild.

Giving these assumptions I'm a complete agnostic on, I was surprised at how difficult it was to find holes in the conclusions. The way the global energy system is shaped by data centers in a super high growth scenario sent me down a ton of rabbit holes among other things. I’d say this new scenario is the single best one-stop shop to understand the concrete worldview of this specific combo of beliefs.