I read this by the pool! A very literate piece, which I do not say lightly of anything reaching for Malthus, since most people who do have not opened the book - and you clearly have.

The strongest bit for my money is the one that disarms the usual rebuttal. The standard dismissal is that he just “forgot productivity”, and your answer, that productivity has fallen to 0.4% and dragged output growth back toward the arithmetic line he assumed, is elegant and largely right. The extensive versus intensive framing of why low-skill inflows deliver near-zero per head growth is cleaner than most attempts at it, and building the whole thing on ONS series rather than just vibes is exactly how I’d say it ought to be done. So congrats for that!

The one thing I would ask you, and I mean to say this as more the thread I would pull next than a complaint per se, is what actually closes the loop? A Malthusian trap needs its equilibrator; the positive check, and you are honest enough to say we are not there. I tend to agree btw. So what stands in for famine in a rich country that borrows to hold its people above subsistence? My own suspicion is the bond market is quietly doing the work the old checks used to, slower and a good deal ruder. But I would rather read where you take it - if that makes sense?

Strong stuff. Looking forward to the next!