Oil Prices

I am looking at oil prices as they go past 100 and I am looking at the current technicals of the price and comparing it to the technicals when oil price passed 100 in march this was right when the war started.

The technicals during the march run to 100 was significantly different than what we see today. In March the technicals were giving a different signal, has the market did not expect such an event we saw a massive spike to 100 with the gap between the price and moving averages being significant. But today we saw something different where this backdrop is more healthy has the price went past 100 the gap between price and moving averages was much more smaller.

I'm trying to come to the point that the prices today are a lot stronger, indicating the market believes that they're going to stay higher for longer. This also comes down to a fundamental story. If you look at the OECD oil reserves from start of the year, were about 2.84 billion barrels, very close to their five year average. As of today, Oil on water increased by 117 million barrels, while onshore inventories fell about 96 million barrels. So barrels were moving around the world on tankers rather than sitting near refineries/end users as readily accessible inventory.

Today’s spike in oil trend is alot stronger, while I don’t think oil price will touch 100 all of a sudden, I expect to it to stay in the upper hand for sometime