As I said in the Dwarkesh podcast and elsewhere, my median for AGI is more like early 2030s, and it might take a few years to have effects this profound on the economy. If you want to make the same bet for 2036, I'm game. I assume you'll want to change the numbers to account for the longer interval (eg there's some chance the stock market goes up that much in ten years even without AGI), so tell me the numbers you're comfortable with for 2036 and I'll confirm that they make sense to me.

If you prefer it be about 2029 so we can resolve earlier, let me know and we can talk about what intermediate endpoints we disagree about for 2029.