Soitec at €54.00 $SLOIF / $soi.pa is the clearest photonics multi-bagger we see right now.

After spending 36 hours at Nvidia GTC studying networking & CPO...

Soitec is now my third largest asymmetrical bet, behind AAOI and KRKNF. Here's why I have steel conviction.

Soitec owns 95%+ market share in Photonics-SOI wafer, the substrate underneath every silicon photonics chip. Every transceiver from AAOI and COHR. Every CPO switch from Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell. All fabricated on Soitec substrates.

Their only licensed competitor, GlobalWafers, is exiting. There's an incredible moat here. No one else is qualified at all the foundries and it would take competitors years to even try and insert at TSM, TSEM, GFS as they ramp for SiPho.

Why it's asymmetrical beyond the market growth: co-packaged optics requires 4x the SiPho wafer content vs. pluggable transceivers. As the industry migrates from pluggables to co-packaged optics, which Nvidia's SVP of Networking told us at GTC is not optional, Soitec's revenue per optical port quadruples. That is asymmetry right there.

Soitec's Edge & Cloud AI division which includes data center, is already growing 34% yoy, so when the CPO inflection happens in 27-28, we're talking silly math on top of existing momentum.

TSEM their largest foundry customer, just reported silicon photonics revenue up 115% YoY with $920M in photonics capex committed and 70%+ of new capacity pre-reserved through 2028. Stock is up 60% and it's now a $20B company, but 10-15% of their cost per sipho chip will flow to Soitec.

The market primarily sees this as a struggling mobile supplier at 3.6x EV/revenue with the CEO stepping down. But the business has reached the trough of mobile and even has some nice short-term tailwinds in edge AI like smart glasses.

We ee a monopoly substrate provider sitting at the base of a $14B --> $73B optical interconnect TAM growing at 39% CAGR.

Shoutout Jason's Chips for being the first on Substack to talk about this stock. Full breakdown of my thesis below.