Most investors believe good results come from good decisions.

But what if that is not true in the short run?

In The Success Equation, the most uncomfortable idea is this:

“When luck plays a large role, short-term results say very little about long-term skill.”

That explains something we see all the time:

A fund outperforms for three years → we call it skill. Then it collapses → we call it bad luck

But the process may have been flawed all along.

I tried to connect this idea to investing decisions more concretely here:

attilarebak.substack.co…