If you look at the swings towards Dems from 2016 -> 2020 that are over 5% they are all small to mid-sized states: (In order from highest swing to lowest): VT, CO, DE, NH, MD, CT, MA, ME, NE, KS, MN, GA, RI, OR. I'm still skeptical it's anything but noise but states like the above might account for slippage in FL/NY.