John Carter (@barsoom): "American involvement in the Middle East has been largely about defending the petrodollar and protecting Israel. The Iranian gamble could end up destroying the petrodollar by destroying American military credibility, which would in turn leave Israel exposed. Polymarket charts in…"

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American involvement in the Middle East has been largely about defending the petrodollar and protecting Israel. The Iranian gamble could end up destroying the petrodollar by destroying American military credibility, which would in turn leave Israel exposed.

Polymarket charts indicate that the probabilities currently favour American ground invasion, and disfavour a timely resolution to the crisis.

If this shit escalates from here, there’s a very real possibility this ends up being just a really, really, really big war. I don’t think Korea or Vietnam would really be as consequential as this could end up being. You have the global oil supply at stake. You have a potential nuclear proliferation moment. You have the existence of Israel and rule of the Sauds and Gulf monarchies in general endangered. You have the credibility of the entire US-backed regional order on the line.

Polymarket and Will Ward

Mar 27

7:52 PM

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