Made a bet on Trump to win popular vote today. I don’t think the odds favor this outcome, but Trump has to ramp up his vote share to win.

If turnout dips, issue polling and tightening of mail-in ballots will hurt Harris more than Trump. The race is a bit like 1980. Big issues are inflation, immigration, crime, foreign policy. Trump win those. Harris wins abortion and climate change. If it breaks like in 1980, the undecideds will suddenly shift to Trump around October 20.