American Thought Leaders — What the Media Is Leaving Out of Its Reporting on Crime. Host Jan Jekielek, guest John Lott (09/16/24, podcast 35 min)
John Lott, founder and president of The Crime Prevention Research Center, discusses his extensive research into national crime rates, arrest rates, as well as gun permit laws and how they impact crime.
Crime Statistics
In 2022 (the last year of available National Crime Victimization data), the FBI showed a 2% drop in violent crime while the National Crime Victimization data showed a 42% increase.
Quite the disparity! Why the disconnect? It basically boils down to this: Fewer crimes are being reported, arrested, or prosecuted.
People must come to a police station to file reports unless crime is in progress. This is too much work, so people give up.
Onerous police paperwork requirements make police less likely to process or arrest any but the most egregious crimes.
So, while fewer reports make it to the FBI database, the public perception that crime is skyrocketing is reflected in National Crime Victimization data.
No wonder the (generally uncurious) media claims crime is going down. They simply choose the simple statistics they are given by government sources such as the FBI.
Gun Laws
In states with constitutional concealed / open carry gun laws and low-cost / no-cost / or not-required gun permits, crime is down because criminals know victims may be armed.
Who is carrying also matters: If lower income, smaller (e.g., women), and elderly people carry, crimes against them are likely deterred. Big burly drug dealers, wealthy people with security details, men, and younger people who can defend themselves are less likely to need protective firearms.
Additional Resources:
Concealed Carry (Wikipedia, includes map of states with and without constitutional carry): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C…
Open Carry (Wikipedia, includes status of open carry, by jurisdiction):
