The Wisdom To Choose Action or Inaction. Complicated versus complex systems. By Robert W Malone MD, MS (11/04/24)
A wise leader knows when to act, when to not act, and practices humility in recognizing the difference. ~Dr. Robert Malone
Dr. Malone writes: “Western politics and progressive logic are generally dominated by the idea that, when encountering a problem or injustice, it is better to act than not.”
He then explains the powerful difference between what is complicated (e.g., computers) and what is complex (e.g., biological and ecological systems, human behavior), citing a recent lecture by Dr. Bret Weinstein.
Complicated systems basically are machines. After some study, they can be understood with enough precision to be modified accurately and predictably.
Complex systems are unpredictable; they are not machines. Even after a great deal of study, they cannot be understood with enough precision to be modified accurately and predictably.
Hubris involves not recognizing one’s limitations. Those with hubris attempt to manipulate complex systems.
Humility is the opposite of hubris. Those with humility do not attempt to manipulate complex systems.
The Wise Path Forward…
Allow complex systems to evolve and respond to changing conditions in a decentralized manner.
Allow different “societies” (or social experiments) to constantly and autonomously adapt to their local conditions.
Disallow external intervention by wealthy, resource-rich or more highly developed third-party agents, nation-states, transnational organizations, or non-governmental organizations.
Realize that behavior of complex systems cannot be predictably engineered. Know that human society, ecological, and biological systems are the not same as digital systems. Doing otherwise reflects ignorant, naive, and deeply dangerous hubris.
Interpersonal communication between human beings should not be censored or constrained in order to implement global social engineering plans or to impose “health” or “climate” solutions for humans, animals, and plants.
Censorship will prevent human societies from adapting and learning from the many small experiments that enable decentralized systems to adjust to changes.
Decentralized communication enables us (as individuals and as a species) to more rapidly adapt to change.
Malone concludes:
Instead [of imposing a censorship, constraint model], we should encourage decentralized diversity in thought and society, choose to respect the unpredictability of the future, and have the wisdom to act cautiously and incrementally when appropriate — and, at times, to not act at all but rather to practice humble, patient, watchful waiting. To be aware that the best medicine is often a tincture of time.
ED NOTE
Elon Musk’s many successful companies experiment constantly. They evaluate ideas rapidly, discuss and toss obviously bad ideas, implement those that might work, then repeat the evaluation, discussion, and implementation process again and again. (Many call this approach "successive approximation:" Try something smallish, get close, see how it goes, re-evaluate, try again until you reach your goal.)
Censorship and constraint NEVER results in better ideas. Instead, such squelching of communication typically elevates bad or wrong ideas to the level of “consensus.” Wrong-headed consensus can then last and harm individuals, societies, and environments for decades, even millennia.
If you hear the word "consensus" used in any context -- especially early on in a crisis -- run, don't walk, to seek alternative opinions that don't match consensus. Yes, sometimes you may even need to consult tin-foil hat conspiracy theorists for ideas.
Many out-of-the-box conspiracy theories have proven true over the decades, as one of our favorite writers, A Midwestern Doctor, has outlined in the Substack series about "The Forgotten Side of Medicine."
