Earlier this evening, Iranian State Radio confirmed the death of the Supreme Leader. His 37 year rule was marked by great cruelty. He was a vindictive and destructive man who did terrible things to his own people, and to millions of others.

The issue at the political level is still “what’s next.?” It is one thing to kill a strongman, or a group of them. But deep statecraft requires a plan beyond telling the Iranian people to “rise up”. A strategy without resources and the means to execute it is better called hallucination.

There are 93 million people living in Iran. It is a vast country with many different regions, religious and political traditions. “Regime change” is not a matter of spontaneous combustion. It cannot be exported like a car or a refrigerator. Iran has lost millions of talented people over the last half century.

It is true that Iran cannot be built from the outside. But it is not clear what, exactly we have learned from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria: civil wars close to Iran that have cost millions of lives and trillions of dollars.

This is no time for triumphalism or quick fixes. Premature self congratulations are not in order. But that seems to be what is on offer.