Turns out this is a huge advantage when your largest global competitor suddenly finds itself in a war zone.

However, I sold most of my Cheniere today; my model suggests an IRR of around 8% from here. If the war escalates, sadly, the IRR will be higher. But if it ends, the stock could easily drop. And while I hope I have an edge in analysing stocks, I don’t have one in predicting geopolitics.

In hindsight, the opportunity to buy this at $190 and a 20% IRR in December was a gift from Mr. Market.

I retain a tracker position. Not investment advice.