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I sold Grupo Aval $AVAL and Grupo Cibest $CIB last week. These are the two biggest banks in Colombia with irreplicable deposit-gathering and lending franchises. I have followed them closely for 15 years and met management many times.

I bought them in January last year at silly prices - Aval was at $2.09, 0.6x book - and the currency was cheap too. They have been good investments: I sold Aval at $4.50. But at its structural ROE of 15% the stock now offers an 11% long term return in dollars - OK, but not. And there is a downside catalyst: Colombia is going into a hotly contested election and at this price I think there is more risk than reward.

As usual, I retain tracking positions.

This is the template I use for valuing EM banks:

May 11
at
4:55 PM
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