One Ship. Now Seven. And 400 Waiting.

Tonight, Dow Jones +1,125. Nasdaq +786. S&P 500 +184. VIX down to 25. Wall Street is pricing the end of the war. The strait disagrees.

Hormuz throughput tonight: 7 ships transiting. 5.1% of normal. 400 vessels waiting outside the strait.

This morning the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if Hormuz remains closed. Markets read de-escalation. Equities soared. Oil fell to $101. Tech gained 3%.

Gold rose $155 to $4,668. Silver up $5. The smart money is not buying the peace narrative. It is buying the permanent disruption narrative dressed as a relief rally.

This afternoon's War Powers note covered what April 28 means for Hormuz. The physical data tonight makes the same argument without needing the constitutional framework. Two reasons Wall Street has this wrong.

The command fracture is now confirmed. Iran's Foreign Ministry acknowledged indirect talks through Pakistan. The FM spokesperson denied negotiations were taking place. Same institution, same day, contradictory statements.

The same day Iran's FM cleared Pakistani vessels for transit, the IRGC turned back Chinese container ships. COSCO, which previously had free passage, blocked.

The toll road model assumes a coherent Iranian authority capable of honouring a transit framework. The IRGC is operating on standing orders independent of FM diplomatic commitments. Any agreement reached through the diplomatic track faces a military apparatus that doesn't recognise it.

The physical reality hasn't moved. 7 ships in 24 hours. Normal is 60. 400 vessels are waiting outside the strait right now.

That is a backlog, not a breakthrough. Iran is deciding who gets through, on what terms, at what price.

The IEA's six month restoration estimate was built for a single chokepoint with a single resolution event and a single authorising actor. None of those conditions exist. Hormuz has two tracks: the US-Iran diplomatic channel and the IRGC enforcement architecture. Bab el-Mandeb has its own clock entirely. The Houthis formally declared war on March 28. Their closure trigger is explicitly tied to US ground operation planning, not to any Iran-US diplomatic outcome.

Three independent clocks. No synchronisation mechanism. The IEA estimate assumed one.

Dow +1,125. Seven ships transiting. Four hundred waiting. 5% of normal.