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EU gas storage is at 28.6% of capacity as of 8 April. Source: GIE AGSI+, the official European gas infrastructure data.
For context: two years ago at the same point in the season, storage was 59% full. Last year it was 34%. This year it is 28.6%. Three consecutive years of deterioration entering the refill season.
The refill season starts now. Europe needs to inject roughly 61 percentage points of storage between now and October to reach the 90% regulatory target. It does that primarily with LNG. Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, cannot restart Ras Laffan on a two-week ceasefire window. Every cargo transiting the strait faces an unresolved sanctions question: according to the FT, shipping lawyers and former US sanctions officials confirm that paying the IRGC toll likely violates US sanctions on Iran.
Bruegel calculates refill costs at €35bn if gas stays at €60/MWh, rising to €44bn at €75/MWh. Their model assumes a 30% starting point. Europe is currently at 28.6% and falling.
Oil recovered this morning when markets noticed the strait was still closed. Then Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon and it sold off again. The storage chart didn't move either time.
The refill problem is not evenly distributed. Netherlands: 5.28%. Germany: 22.76%. France: 23.1%. Italy: 43.61%. Spain: 59.47%.
The countries with the least storage are the ones most exposed to the next price spike. Spain's buffer won't save Germany.
Source: Storage levels: GIE AGSI+ live data as of 8 April 2026. Refill cost analysis: Bruegel, "How Europe should respond to the Iran gas shock," 1 April 2026.
