Like I've said before, I don't think it's an either/or situation; it's a both/and situation. Joe Biden/Democrats are in such dire political straits because a third of the country is suffering from mass hysteria/authoritarian tendencies AND the normal midterm punishment you would expect for the party in power given the various economic and social indicators (inflation, crime rates, etc.) It just so happens that the normal midterm punishment for the party in power is to the benefit of the mass hysteria/authoritarian curious third of the country. If either of those conditions were different, Biden/Democrats would be in better shape. But we don't live in that timeline, so...

I do quibble with some of the premises though -- I'm not sure that DeSantis going after Disney is a sure political winner for him; and I'm not sure "random tweets by progressives are more of an electoral liability" than JD Vance and Trump saying the quiet coup part out loud. Especially on the latter, I think the progressive "weak on crime" stuff and the MAGA "Stop the Steal" stuff is probably a wash, but Republicans are nevertheless benefitting from the normal midterm advantages for the out party.

I also wonder how many voters are thinking "sure, SOME Republicans are nuts, but not the one running in MY district..." as a way to give themselves permission to vote against the status quo without taking responsibility for the authoritarian stuff. Not everyone voting against Democrats is doing so as an affirmation of authoritarianism and don't view it as such.